Inflation Cools, But the Fed Isn't Ready to Call It Over

Inflation just posted its biggest surprise of the year. June's CPI fell 0.4% — the first monthly drop in six years — but don't get too comfortable. Gas prices did the heavy lifting while shelter, dining out, and airfares are still running hot, and the Fed's Waller says a rate hike is still on the table if inflation doesn't keep cooling. A closer look at what's easing and what isn't in the economy right now.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index — June 2026 (bls.gov); U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Sales — June 2026 (census.gov); Federal Reserve, Governor Christopher Waller speech, July 12, 2026 (federalreserve.gov); Reuters, "Lower gasoline prices hold back US retail sales," July 16, 2026.

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