Market Rally Continues on US-China Trade Optimism, AI Momentum

Stocks surged to fresh record highs Monday as optimism around a potential US-China trade deal combined with expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong AI-related earnings drove broad risk-on sentiment. The S&P 500 posted its best three-day run since May, led by megacap tech stocks, while crypto also rallied. Bond yields were mixed, and gold sold off as investors rotated out of safety trades.

Key Headlines & Market Movers

• US-China Trade Hopes Fuel Risk Appetite: Markets welcomed signs that U.S.-China trade negotiations are progressing, with a framework in place for Trump and Xi to finalize a deal later this week. While thornier issues like national security remain unresolved, investors embraced the short-term diplomatic momentum. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments reinforced expectations for a symbolic breakthrough, which lifted global sentiment and drove equity gains.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Add Tailwind: With inflation data soft and short-term yields rising modestly, markets remain confident the Fed will cut rates this week. Easing policy continues to support the broader narrative of a soft landing, helping investors look past lingering macro risks. Tailwinds from seasonality, fiscal stimulus, and easing monetary policy are reinforcing bullish positioning into year-end.

• AI and Tech Earnings in Focus: The Magnificent Seven outperformed ahead of a heavy earnings week, with Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet set to report Wednesday, and Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Investors are watching for signs that aggressive AI-related investment is translating into revenue growth. Qualcomm surged 13% after announcing new AI chips for data centers, fueling optimism around the sector's next leg of growth.
• Broader Corporate and M&A Activity Signals Momentum: Beyond tech, deal activity is picking up. American Water Works and Essential Utilities announced the largest U.S. water utility merger in decades, while Huntington Bancshares made a $7.4B acquisition to expand in the Southeast. Meanwhile, Amazon’s reported 30,000-job cut underscores an efficiency push amid AI spending acceleration. Notably, Nvidia and Deutsche Telekom are planning a €1B AI data center in Germany, pointing to growing global infrastructure buildout.

S&P 500 Sector Performance

Looking Ahead

Markets are entering a pivotal stretch, with high-stakes earnings from key tech names and the Trump-Xi summit on deck. While valuations remain stretched in parts of the market, momentum is strong, and near-term catalysts are aligning. Any disappointment on earnings or trade could spark volatility, but for now, sentiment remains firmly risk-on, supported by strong earnings, dovish policy, and AI-driven investment optimism.

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