Markets End Week Strong Amid Triple Witching Surge and AI Optimism

Stocks finished the week on a high note, driven by renewed enthusiasm for AI-related names and heavy options-related trading. A record-setting triple witching day contributed to the spike in volume, but didn’t derail the rally. Mega-cap tech and semiconductors led gains, allowing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to erase earlier losses and close the week higher. Bond yields inched up, while Bitcoin and gold also rallied. Sentiment seems to be firming around a year-end Santa Claus rally, supported by resilient earnings, AI tailwinds, and expectations for policy easing in 2026.

Key Headlines & Market Movers:

• Triple Witching Drives Volatility, But Not Fundamentals: Markets saw a mechanical surge in volume tied to the expiration of $7.1 trillion in options and futures contracts, known as a triple witching. While such events can spark volatility, strategists were quick to note that the moves are not driven by fundamentals. Traders rolled expiring contracts or repositioned into year-end, but the impact appears more technical than trend-shifting.

Tech & AI Names Regain Leadership: Semiconductors and AI-focused firms bounced back sharply after recent weakness. Nvidia, AMD, and Micron led the way, with the latter extending a post-earnings surge. Oracle spiked nearly 7% following reports it will take a leading stake in TikTok’s US operations through a new JV. The rebound in tech helped fuel a broad risk-on tone, pushing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 into positive territory for the week.

• Nike Drops, but Broader Earnings Sentiment Holds: Nike slumped 10% after warning of a sales decline amid weakness in China and Converse. However, the broader earnings picture remained constructive. FedEx beat expectations and raised guidance, while Carnival reinstated its dividend and issued upbeat forecasts. Investor focus appears to remain on growth resilience rather than isolated misses.

Flows, Positioning, and the ‘Santa Rally’ Setup: Equity inflows totaled nearly $78 billion this week, the second-highest on record, as investors re-engaged with risk assets. The rotation back into tech and a renewed appetite for call options suggest growing confidence in a year-end rally. Historically, the last two weeks of December have produced positive returns roughly 75% of the time. While valuations remain elevated, breadth has improved and sector leadership is shifting in a healthy way.

S&P 500 Sector Performance

Looking Ahead

With the Fed expected to hold steady in the near term, markets may continue to grind higher into year-end on momentum and positioning. However, next week’s data and any macro surprises could still introduce pockets of volatility. The AI investment theme remains a key tailwind, but investors should stay disciplined, focusing on quality companies with durable growth rather than speculative plays. As year-end draws near, rebalancing and tax strategies may also influence flows.

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