The Pulse: Global Economic and Market News for Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Markets closed out a turbulent April on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, demonstrating remarkable resilience as investors digested the first U.S. economic contraction in over two years, persistent tariff uncertainty, and a flurry of significant corporate earnings. Despite the volatility, stocks rebounded from steep early losses to finish the month on a mixed note, a testament to the market's strength.

U.S. Economy Contracts for the First Time Since 2022

According to preliminary data from the Commerce Department, the U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025- the first negative GDP reading since 202214. However, amidst this contraction, there are signs of potential growth. Business investment remained relatively robust, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted that tariff uncertainty and rising costs weigh on business sentiment and consumer confidence, raising the probability of a U.S. recession to 40% this year8.

Market Recap: Stocks Rebound After Steep Early Losses

Despite the disappointing GDP report, U.S. stocks staged a comeback late in the session. The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, marking its seventh consecutive daily gain, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%-its longest win streak in nearly a year256. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% as technology shares lagged, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.6%26. Earlier in the day, the S&P 500 had been down as much as 2.3% before buyers stepped in26.

For the month, the S&P 500 lost 5.3%, the Dow fell 4.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 9.7% as investors navigated volatile swings sparked by President Trump’s evolving tariff policies and a mixed earnings season26. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, ended April down 11.9%2.

Tariffs and Trade Policy Drive Volatility

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, enacted in early April, reverberated through markets and the broader economy346. While the full impact of these tariffs is not expected to be felt until May, economists noted a significant slowdown in activity and confidence compared to earlier this year38. Reports late in the session that the U.S. has reached out to China for renewed tariff negotiations helped lift stocks from their lows6.

Earnings and Corporate Highlights

Investors also focused on a busy slate of corporate earnings. Humana surged 5.6% after beating profit expectations, while Super Micro Computer plunged 16% after cutting its outlook due to delays in client spending37. Several major tech firms, including Microsoft and Meta, reported after the close, with investors watching closely for signals on AI investment and the impact of tariffs on global supply chains567.

Outlook: Recession Risks and Persistent Uncertainty

Looking ahead, the IMF’s latest outlook warns that U.S. growth will likely remain subdued, with a 1.8% GDP forecast for 2025 and inflation expected to hit 3% as tariffs drive up prices8. Economists caution that further escalation in trade tensions could increase the odds of a recession and further unsettle financial markets8.

Disclosure

This article contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations as of April 30, 2025. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth herein. The economic and market analyses presented are based on various assumptions and may not prove accurate. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information.

The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. The article references third-party information from various news sources; while efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Market data mentioned is as of April 30, 2025, and is subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

Sources

• Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-gdp-inflation-tariffs-04-30-2025
• ABC News: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-wednesday-4302025-121334494
• Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-tepid-ahead-data-storm-megacap-earnings-2025-04-30/
• NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/gdp-q1-us-economy-contracts-rcna203608
• MarketWatch: https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-nasdaq-to-lead-dow-and-s-p-lower-on-ai-concerns-meta-and-microsoft-earnings-due
• Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-come-back-from-steep-lows-after-gdp-print-to-cap-turbulent-april-200112050.html
• Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
• World Economic Forum: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/imf-raises-us-recession-risk-and-other-finance-news-to-know/

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