Stocks Rebound as Oil Slides on US-Iran Deal Hopes

Stocks rallied Wednesday as hopes for progress toward a US-Iran deal pushed oil prices sharply lower and eased inflation fears that had pressured markets in recent sessions. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow all gained, while long-dated Treasury yields fell from elevated levels. The rebound was broad, though late trading turned more cautious after Nvidia slipped despite reporting stronger-than-expected results.

Key Headlines & Market Movers:

Oil Pullback Eases Inflation Pressure: Crude prices fell sharply after President Trump said the US was in the “final stages” of talks with Iran, raising hopes for an end to the war and less disruption risk in energy markets. WTI dropped back below $100 a barrel, helping reverse some of the recent concern that higher energy costs could keep inflation sticky. Treasury yields also declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.57%, giving equities additional support.

• Fed Minutes Keep Rate-Risk in Focus: The latest Federal Reserve meeting record showed that a majority of officials believed rate hikes could come back into consideration if inflation stays persistently above target. That message tempered some of the relief from falling oil prices, reminding investors that the policy path remains highly dependent on inflation data. For now, lower energy prices helped markets look past that risk, but the Fed remains a key constraint on risk appetite.

Nvidia Beats but Slips After Hours: Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and record revenue, driven by another surge in data-center sales tied to AI demand. The stock still moved lower in late trading, suggesting expectations were already very high after a strong year-to-date rally. Given Nvidia’s market weight and role as a bellwether for AI spending, its outlook and conference call remain important for broader tech sentiment.

S&P 500 Sector Performance

Looking Ahead

Markets will stay focused on whether US-Iran negotiations show concrete progress, since oil remains the key macro swing factor for inflation expectations, rates, and risk appetite. Investors will also parse Nvidia’s guidance for signs that AI capital spending remains durable, while upcoming economic data will determine whether the Fed’s inflation concerns stay theoretical or become a renewed policy threat. Corporate results from retailers and consumer-facing companies will be watched for evidence of whether households are still spending or becoming more cautious.

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