Markets Drift Lower as Year-End Nears; Fed Minutes Reinforce Rate Cut Expectations

Stocks edged lower Tuesday for a third straight session, with trading thin and few new catalysts to shift sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while gold and silver rebounded after Monday’s steep declines. Investors largely shrugged off the December Fed meeting minutes, which confirmed rate cuts are likely next year but showed policymakers remain divided. Yields crept higher and the dollar strengthened modestly. Overall, global markets are ending 2025 on a subdued note after strong yearly gains.

Key Headlines & Market Movers:

• Fed Minutes: Dovish Tilt, but Divided Views: Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting confirmed that most policymakers anticipate further rate cuts in 2026 if inflation continues to cool. However, the internal debate over the last quarter-point cut suggests future moves may be less predictable. While the market continues to expect a dovish Fed, the uncertainty around timing and depth of cuts leaves equities vulnerable to data surprises.

Precious Metals Rebound After Margin-Induced Selloff: Gold and silver futures snapped back sharply after a Monday selloff triggered by higher CME margin requirements. Gold rose 0.4% and silver surged over 8%, recovering much of the previous day’s losses. Ongoing volatility in precious metals suggests investors are still seeking inflation hedges and safe havens, despite the year-end lull.

• Tech Stocks Under Pressure on CapEx Concerns: Big tech names including Tesla, Nvidia, and Palantir extended losses amid concerns about capital spending and 2026 earnings visibility. Meta bucked the trend, gaining over 1% after acquiring Singapore-based AI firm Manus. Intel rose after Nvidia disclosed a $5B share purchase, hinting at continued interest in AI infrastructure.

Geopolitics and Commodities in Focus: Oil was little changed, as traders weighed geopolitical risks from Venezuela, Russia, and Yemen against ample global supply. Meanwhile, industrial metals like copper and nickel continued their December rally, driven by tightening supply and trade-driven demand. China’s yuan strengthened past 7 per dollar for the first time since 2023, offering a modest tailwind for broader emerging markets.

S&P 500 Sector Performance

Looking Ahead

With just one full trading day left in 2025, markets are wrapping up a strong year on a quiet note. The holiday calendar and light volumes are likely to persist until early next week. Attention will quickly shift to the first economic prints of 2026, including labor data and PMI surveys, which could test the market’s expectations for a soft landing and Fed rate cuts. While sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, lingering macro risks and elevated valuations suggest a bumpy start to the new year is still possible.

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