November 24, 2025

Thanksgiving Rally or Risk? How to Protect Your Gains This Season

With Thanksgiving approaching, it’s a good moment for investors and families to pause and appreciate how resilient both household finances and the markets have been in 2025. Net worth has grown thanks to rising stock and real estate values, helping boost consumer confidence and spending. Meanwhile, corporations have shown adaptability, and low household debt levels mean balance sheets are healthier, which bodes well for continued growth.

But while there’s a lot to be thankful for, it’s just as important to stay alert. Even during strong economic times, surprises like credit market shocks, trade disputes, or geopolitical events can shake up the markets. The seasonal “Thanksgiving Rally” in stocks, fueled by retail optimism and tech sector gains, isn’t immune to risks. High volatility, expensive stock prices, and unpredictable policies mean things can change quickly for investors who aren’t paying attention.

The Strength Behind Resilience

In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. households reached a record $176 trillion in net worth, driven by strong gains in stocks and property. Household debt, or leverage, is at its lowest since the 1960s.
Since the financial crisis, household debt as a share of the economy has dropped, making families more resilient to shocks and supporting their ability to spend.
Companies have adjusted their supply chains and investment plans to handle sudden tariffs and global disruptions, helping the economy stay steady.

Credit and Geopolitical Risks Persist

Credit markets are still sensitive to sudden changes in investor mood or interest rates. Policy changes could trigger inflation or make it harder for some companies to refinance their debt.
Geopolitical surprises—like trade wars or regional conflicts—can still cause market swings and put pressure on banks, businesses, and asset values.
Investor surveys show a split: some people expect markets to climb through the holidays, but many are cautious, aware of economic uncertainty and fragile market moods.

Takeaway for Investors

Enjoy the rewards of a resilient market but keep an eye on your portfolio and make sure it’s diversified. Don’t put too much into the hottest assets, since they’re often the most vulnerable if sentiment changes or surprises hit. Staying alert during holiday optimism matters—market corrections rarely announce themselves in advance.

Benefit of Balanced Gratitude and Caution

By blending gratitude for market gains with a healthy dose of caution, investors and families can better protect what they’ve earned. This balanced approach helps ensure long-term financial security and leaves you better prepared for surprises that might come after the holidays.

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Disclosure

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult your own financial advisor before making investment decisions, as market risks and circumstances can change rapidly. The author does not hold positions in any referenced securities at the time of writing.

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Thanksgiving Rally or Risk? How to Protect Your Gains This Season

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